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| Richard Boyd Barrett and Joe Higgins of the Left Wing Alliance, both elected in the General Election |
The central theme that dominated this election was that of change. Change of the parties in power, change in the way the Dáil works and more political change besides. But in the cold light of day was there any substantial change? I would argue no. During the election campaign there was a focus on the opportunities for the left to make gains. Before the election campaign much of this focus primarily fell on the Labour Party and their incredible rise in popularity. Before Christmas a number of polls pointed to the rise in Sinn Féin. I looked at this in my blog and some polls indicated Sinn Féin outpolling Fianna Fáil. This was followed up by the establishment of the Left Wing Alliance of the Socialist Party, People Before Profit and left wing politicians. The anticipation was that these parties would benefit from the inevitable decline in Fianna Fáil support.
The parties in government have changed following the election but the approach to the mess we find ourselves in has not. The election of Fine Gael to the Dáil has seen power move to a further right of centre party than Fianna Fáil. As the election campaign developed the left vote faded away to such an extent that at one stage a Fine Gael overall majority looked like a distinct possibility. There may have been many different factors behind this and parties to the left of Labour did make major gains. However a hard left (Sinn Féin, Socialist Party, People Before Profit, Workers' Party) figure of 12.2% is hardly earth shattering. You have to wonder will the left ever make a breakthrough in Ireland if it can’t be done at the time of the biggest collapse of international capitalism since the Great Depression of the late 1920s. This has been the historic trend of the left in Ireland. There is a distinct inability to break down the old Civil War divide that has dominated the ninty years of the state’s existence despite the fact that the ideological differences of Fine Fáil and Fine Gael today are minimal. Both are determined to push through with the IMF/EU bailout, and despite the bravado of renegotiating the deal, on its own Ireland’s influence and clout is neglible. It is on bailout issue however which also acted as a block to major progress of left wing candidates. Sinn Féin, and the Left Wing Alliance outlined their intention to rescind on the IMF/EU deal and opposition refutes of the apocalyptic consequences of such a move installed fear into many voters who may have been inclined towards the left wing parties.
Additionally Labour’s campaign in reality was a poor one. The campaign focus of making Eamon Gilmore Taoiseach fell on its face and by the end of the campaign the ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ posters were more of an embarrassment to the party than anything else.’ As well as this Gilmore’s jibes describing European Central Bank chief Jean Claude Trichet as ‘a mere civil servant’ after his denial that Ireland could renegotiate the bailout deal and the mantra of ‘Frankfurt’s Way or Labour’s Way’ didn’t resonate with the public. In spite of all this in any case Labour shouldn’t really have a problem negotiating a deal with Fine Gael as they have a lot more in common with them then any party further left on the spectrum. Vincent Browne indicated this today in his article in the Irish Times:
Both are agreed it is best to renegotiate the EU-IMF deal to reduce the debt burden and to decrease the interest rate. Both are convinced there is no option ultimately but to defer to the diktats of the ECB and EU Commission even if this means compensating bondholders of the banks not covered by the guarantee.
Labour is now again about to enter another coalition and, it is certain, the outcome will be the same. No alteration to the structure of society, aside from a widening of inequality. Yes a few reforms that, essentially, won’t change much.
Hardly anything different from what could happen were Fine Gael to be in office on its own, with the support of a few capitalist cheerleaders.
In reality a lot of Fianna Fáil votes went straight to Fine Gael and 2011 turned out to be an Election which failed which to live up to the expectations of the left.
Since the state was founded left wing parties have failed to make a mark. The exception to this was in the last recession of the 1980s. Throughout the decade the Workers’ Part was a presence in Irish politics until the break with Democratic Left and later their infiltration into Labour. It seems remarkable to look at the success The Workers’ Party managed in the 1980s with their hard left policies, and even Soviet associations that they managed to increase their vote throughout the decade to their highpoint of 7 seats and 5% in the 1989 General Election. This rise comprised of mainly Dublin seats but incorporated TDs from rural constituencies as well such a Joe Sherlock in East Cork.
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| Jonathan O'Brien of Sinn Féin celebrates his election in Cork North Central |
Compare the Workers’ Party result to the hardest left party in Ireland today, the Socialist Party who attained 2 seats including their leader Joe Higgins and Dublin councillor Clare Daly with 1.2% of 1st preferences. Sinn Féin was one of the elections success stories, winning 14 seats but their percentage increase was only 3%.
Left wing parties did attain major gains in this election, in a climate of real public anger. The Irish electorate has had an aversion to left wing parties in the past but now with Fianna Fáil starting their rebuilding process and the inevitable decrease of popularity in store for Fine Gael and Labour with the austerity measures that will continue to be implemented, the 2011 General Election may be a base for the left in Ireland to build from.
